March Austin housing market stats show truly incredible promise and strength. However, we would be misleading you if we made it sound like this means we are "out of the woods." Yes, the Austin market is strong, but COVID - 19 impacts businesses, the community and real estate. Those are just the facts. However, it doesn't mean business isn't moving, and it doesn't mean you have lost any value in your home. In fact, March 2020, literally demonstrated the opposite of that. However, while we are all in this together, each client we work with will be impacted uniquely and differently by COVID -19.
The beautiful thing about real estate though is one person's solution is another person's opportunity, and this cornerstone market strength allows a platform for solutions and opportunities amidst the economic tsunami that is COVID - 19.
Average Days on Market vs. Median Home Value
Austin residential home sales analyzed to compare the average days on market to median home value over last two years through March, 2020. Despite COVID 19 concerns and Shelter in Place Mandates, the Austin residential "house" market in March, 2020 experienced not only year over year gains in accelerating median value and decreasing days on market, but also demonstrated an increase over preceding January and February 2020.
Data for above graph: Month to Month and Year over Year Comps in "House" Sold listings in Austin.
Average Sale Price per Sq Ft for all Residential Listings in Austin Area Through March 2020
Average Sale Price for all Residential in Austin Area Through March 2020
Active Listings vs. Sold Listings for Residential 'House' Listings in Austin Area
Active listings verses sold listing demonstrate highest saturation levels to date, and strong buyer motivation despite unstable economic factors. Movement was handicapped by physical and safety barriers on the sellers' side. However, buyers swept through the market hopeful to take advantage of home purchases without the usual bidding wars - Indicative to the Austin spring market rush.
Data for Active Listings verses Number of Sold Homes 2018 Through March 2020
Preliminary Pending Contract Analysis
As you can see below, as COVID -19 concerns trampled the stock market, the housing market held steadfast in Austin, TX. Week 4 was the first week where we see a real dip in pending contracts in Austin. However, this is largely due to physical barriers of Shelter in Place Orders that were initiated, as well as physical fears of COVID 19 and overall economic uncertainty.
What is to Come Next
This week construction and real estate were officially ruled "essential businesses." This means we are open for business presuming safety protocols are in place. However, we are still offering virtual tour experiences whenever possible. We are "business as usual" in the most unusual of days. Therefore, expect real estate to pick up slightly this next week as we move forward with business as safely as possible.
Economic Uncertainty
We will feel the economic impact of COVID - 19. However, Austin was already padded by a myriad of resiliency factors including steady curve growth over the last five years, vast tech jobs that allow work from home opportunities, and low supply/high demand. In fact, Austin was rated the number one city in real estate sales and median home value growth in the aftermath of the 2008 recession. The fact that Austin was already set to be the "hottest" market in national real estate for 2020, means now that Austin is set to be the most "resilient" market in national real estate for 2020.
What you have happening now, or what we will probably begin to see, is essentially the opposite of a bubble. A bubble in a housing market is synonymous with growth without substance. Austin's real estate growth trends are exactly the opposite of this as demonstrated below. Notice the percent of median price increase, gradually decreases, in Austin's line graph. Despite job acceleration, low supply and high demand - prices have remained stable with steady growth over the last five years. Also, take note of the lack of dip during the recession that hit the United States in 2008.
We say "opposite of a bubble" because what we are witnessing currently with COVID - 19, is an outlier impact on natural market circumstances. We have market deflating circumstances which longterm economic markets, like the housing market, are better suited to resist than the volatile stock markets.
The Austin housing market is not made up of air, ready to burst, but rather it was built brick by brick. And we are about to find out just how strong our foundation is because we were just hit by a tsunami that had the nerve to try to take us down. But we're still standing.
Silver lining: When we have the strength to move through this, a renewed faith in the housing market should surface within a couple years leading to unprecedented growth.
Austin Slow Curve Growth Amidst Pandemics
In Summary
The good news: March demonstrated extremely high real estate market strength and was one of the best months to date for Austin Real Estate, for a variety of market indicators.
However, that said, these are unusual times and they will impact our community members in very different ways. Physical barriers to 'business as usual' has caused some to lose their jobs, and many local businesses to shut down temporarily - or even permanently. While, we expect any potential dip in sales prices for Austin homes to be temporary, there will be people that are affected more longterm from this pandemic.
So we will not pretend that people's housing investment strategy is not affected by COVID 19. Everything about your real estate plans ARE affected by COVID - 19. While the market will retain strength, clients will present with extremely different circumstances and situations. While some may tap into this opportunity to execute potential move-ups, others will need to re-evaluate their family's situation and look at ways they can cash into their home equity - Whether that means downsizing, or cash out options. Some people will be interested in new investment opportunities abounding, while others will want to liquidate investments and assets.
We are all in this together, and we will get through this together. Let us help you in anyway we can.
The beautiful thing about real estate is one person's solution is another person's opportunity.
